The number of children entering elementary school this year is expected to drop below 300,000 due to the impact of low birth rates.
According to the '2025 Estimates of Student Numbers for Elementary, Middle, and High Schools (2026-2031)' that was recently released by the Ministry of Education on the 13th, the total number of first-grade elementary students across the country is estimated to be 298,178.
These statistics are predicted based on data from the Korean Educational Development Institute's basic education statistics, the National Data Office's population predictions, and the Ministry of Interior and Safety's resident registration data.
In an estimation from January last year, the Ministry of Education predicted that the number of first-grade elementary students would not fall below 300,000 until 2027. However, after reviewing variables such as resident registration and school enrollment rates, they moved that timeline up by one year.
The number of first-grade elementary students clearly shows the steep decline in the school-age population.
According to the Korean Educational Development Institute's Statistical Yearbook of Education, the number of first-grade elementary students (as of April 1) fell from 703,112 in 2000 to 694,256 in 2001 due to low birth rates and other factors, breaking below 700,000.
After dropping from 534,816 in 2008 and 468,233 in 2009, the numbers hovered in the 400,000 range for a while, then declined sharply in recent years to 401,752 in 2023, 353,713 in 2024, and 324,040 last year.
Comparing the estimates for 2023 and this year, this shows that the population has shrunk by 25.8% (103,574 students) in just three years.
In this projection, the Ministry of Education expects the number of first-grade elementary students to continue declining to 277,674 in 2027; 262,309 in 2028; 247,591 in 2029; 232,268 in 2030; and 220,481 in 2031.
The estimate for 2031 is approximately 32% lower compared to last year.
The total number of elementary, middle, and high school students is estimated to fall from 5,015,310 last year to 4,836,890 this year.
It is expected to continue declining to 4,661,385 in 2027; 4,488,023 in 2028; 4,280,164 in 2029; and 4,056,402 in 2030, before falling below 4 million to 3,811,087 in 2031.
The fast decline in the school-age population is a major challenge for the education sector.
Due to a lack of students, schools are closing one after another, and some universities, especially those outside the Seoul metropolitan area, are struggling to fill their freshman enrollment quotas.
Conflicts are also arising as teacher unions protesting the Ministry of Education's plan to reduce teaching positions, calling it as 'nothing more than a declaration that they are giving up on public education.'
An education official stated, "The decline in the school-age population due to low birth rates is an unavoidable phenomenon. The education sector must work together to minimize the shock and reduce conflicts among stakeholders."
1. [+93][-3] The population decline is an extremely serious problem, but the elderly leaders of this country are too busy protecting their own interests🤙👍
2. [+73][-6] Lower prices a bit. Prices should sometimes go down depending on global conditions, but because of corporate profits and advertising costs, the backs of people are getting broken.
3. [+62][-3] Even animals don't reproduce if the environment isn't suitable.
4. [+12][-1] Cut the number of education universities.
5. [+12][-3] Honestly, people are not having kids because everything is too expensive. It's hard enough just to survive on your own.
